Ford Motor Stock Forecast: Can It Soar 108% by 2029?

Is Ford Motor Company’s stock, trading at a multi-year low of $9.405, a hidden gem or a value trap? With a juicy 6–7.5% dividend yield, a rock-bottom valuation, and technical signals hinting at a price floor, Ford is catching the eye of savvy investors. Yet, tariff wars, EV losses, and a cutthroat automotive landscape cast shadows over its future. Dive into our 2025–2029 forecast to uncover whether Ford’s stock is poised for a rebound or facing further turbulence.

Operations

Ford Motor Company, a global automotive giant, manufactures and sells vehicles under its Ford and Lincoln brands across more than 100 countries. Headquartered in Dearborn, Michigan, Ford operates through two primary business units: Ford Blue, which focuses on internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, and Ford Model e, dedicated to battery electric vehicles (BEVs).

The company also maintains Ford Pro for commercial vehicles and fleet services. Ford’s product portfolio includes trucks (notably the F-Series, the top-selling vehicle in the U.S. with 732,139 units sold in 2024), SUVs, cars, and an expanding lineup of electric and hybrid vehicles.

Key manufacturing facilities are located in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, China, and Europe, supported by a complex global supply chain. Ford has recently scaled back its EV ambitions, prioritizing hybrids to align with market demand and cost efficiencies.

Financial Performance and Ratios

Ford’s 2024 financials were a mixed bag. Record annual revenue was overshadowed by a $5.1 billion Q4 loss in its EV division. For 2025, Ford projects adjusted EBIT of $7–8.5 billion, down from $10.2 billion in 2024, driven by pricing pressures, slower EV adoption, and tariff costs. Analysts have slashed 2025 EPS estimates by 63% to $1.37.

Key financial ratios as of April 2025:

• Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 6.8–7.2 (forward 2025 estimates), indicating a low valuation compared to the S&P 500’s 20x forward earnings.
• Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio: 0.2x, significantly below the S&P 500’s 3.2x, reflecting Ford’s undervaluation relative to revenue.
• Dividend Yield: Approximately 6–7.5%, attractive for income-focused investors.
• Debt-to-Market Cap: Ford’s debt stands at $131 billion, high relative to its $38.17 billion market capitalization, signaling balance sheet strain.

Ford’s operating cash flow remains moderate, with a 2024 OCF-to-sales ratio of 10.7% compared to the S&P 500’s 15.7%. The company’s capital-intensive operations require substantial investments in manufacturing, R&D, and technology, contributing to its financial volatility.

Ford Motor Stock Price Performance

Ford’s stock (NYSE: F) has faced significant headwinds. As of April 21, 2025, the stock price is $9.405, down 35.2% year-over-year and 15.3% over the past 12 months, underperforming the S&P 500’s 10% gain.

The stock has fluctuated within a 52-week range of $9.06 to $14.85. Over the past decade, Ford’s total return (including dividends) has been modest at 81.5%, or 3% annualized, trailing broader market indices.

Recent declines are attributed to tariff pressures, EV losses, and a competitive automotive landscape. Intraday trading on April 21 showed a slight decline from an opening price of $9.58 to a low of $9.386.

Competitive Landscape

The automotive industry is highly competitive and capital-intensive, with Ford facing pressure from domestic and international rivals:

• Domestic Competitors: General Motors reported a 16.7% U.S. sales increase in Q1 2025, outperforming Ford’s 1.3% sales decline. Stellantis, however, saw a 12% drop, indicating varied performance among Detroit automakers.
• International Competitors: Toyota, with a more cautious EV strategy, has outperformed Ford in stock returns over the past decade, closing at $174.24 on April 15, 2025. Honda and Nissan reported Q1 sales gains of 5.3% and 5.7%, respectively, while Hyundai saw a late-quarter surge.
• EV and Technology: Tesla dominates the EV market, while Ford’s $5.1 billion EV loss in 2024 highlights challenges in scaling Ford Model e. Ford’s shift toward hybrids aims to compete with Toyota’s hybrid expertise, but supply chain issues and competition remain hurdles.

Tariffs, particularly the 25% U.S. tariffs on foreign vehicles and parts effective April 3, 2025, exacerbate competitive pressures. Ford’s reliance on imported parts and exports to markets like China has strained margins, prompting strategic pivots.

Investment Insight

As a manufacturing company, Ford Motor Company is not expected to exhibit high profitability metrics. However, its Investment Scoreboard rating is relatively strong, making it an intriguing prospect for investors—albeit with certain caveats.

First, we note that the 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of Ford’s stock price is -4.64%, which is notably poor. In contrast, the average annual growth of the stock’s Book Value over the same period was 4.53%. This widening divergence between stock price and BV should theoretically act as a brake on further price declines, suggesting that the stock is nearing a bottom and poised for a potential rebound, as we predict.

Another critical factor is the tariff wars associated with the Trump administration, which could negatively impact heavy industry not only in the U.S. but globally. Ford, as a major player in this sector, may face challenges, potentially leading to further stock price declines. However, this downturn could present an attractive “discount” opportunity for investors looking to buy at lower valuations.

A third key consideration is Ford’s dividend yield, which stood at an impressive 7.79% at the time of writing. This is significantly higher than the broader market average and is likely to capture the attention of income-focused investors.

But Ford’s high dividend yield remains a standout feature, but its sustainability is under scrutiny due to projected earnings declines in 2025 ($1.37 per share, down 63% from 2024). The company’s $5.1 billion loss in its EV division in 2024 and tariff-related cost pressures (e.g., 25% U.S. tariffs on foreign vehicles and parts effective April 3, 2025) heighten risks to the dividend.

Ford Motor Stock Forecast**

2025–2029 Price Targets: 

Year	MIN Target	MAX Target
2025	7.76	13.44
2026	8.53	14.77
2027	9.38	16.24
2028	10.31	17.85
2029	11.34	19.63

When to buy and Investment Tips

The company’s stock price has been declining in the market for over three years. It currently has support at the $9.15–$9 range. Based on technical analysis, we can confidently assert that the price has found a bottom here. This is further supported by the price diverging from the Awesome Oscillator. However, we cannot predict the U.S. presidential administration’s communications, which can wipe out billions of dollars from the market with a single statement.

Nevertheless, our primary focus is not on tariff wars but on our own capital and risk management. To avoid being rattled by the U.S. president’s actions, we buy Ford shares in small quantities that do not significantly impact the overall portfolio. We consistently add to our position, whether the price is falling or rising.

This dollar-cost averaging tactic mitigates volatility and aligns with Ford’s ongoing efforts to stabilize its business through U.S.-focused production and hybrid vehicle emphasis. Investors adopting this approach should monitor Ford’s Q1 2025 earnings for insights into tariff impacts and EV strategy adjustments, ensuring their portfolio remains resilient amid macroeconomic uncertainties.

Dividend Policy and Buyback Policy

Ford’s dividend policy remains a key draw for investors. The company pays a regular quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share ($0.60 annually), yielding 6–7.5% at current prices. Ford also periodically issues special dividends, such as a $0.15 payout declared in Q4 2024.

The regular dividend is well-covered, consuming about one-third of 2024 earnings, though tariff pressures and lower 2025 earnings forecasts raise concerns about sustainability. Historically, Ford has cut dividends during economic downturns, so investors should monitor macroeconomic conditions.

Ford has not emphasized share buybacks recently, focusing instead on preserving cash amid tariff-related uncertainties and EV investments. Unlike peers like General Motors, which announced a $6 billion buyback, Ford’s capital allocation prioritizes dividends and operational resilience.

Latest News (For this moment)

Ford has been proactive in responding to recent challenges:

• Tariff Response: Ford announced across-the-board discounts starting April 3, 2025, offering employee pricing on most Ford and Lincoln models (excluding Raptors, 2025 Expedition, Navigator, and Super Duty trucks) until June 2. This move leverages Ford’s healthy inventory to offset tariff-driven price hikes by competitors.
• Production Adjustments: Ford halted vehicle shipments to China due to tariff uncertainties and paused operations at select plants, such as the Windsor facility, for two weeks in April 2025.
• Market Challenges: Analysts have downgraded Ford’s 2025 outlook, citing a $2 billion+ profit drop due to tariffs, higher costs, and lower vehicle prices. The stock’s 35.2% year-over-year decline reflects these concerns.
• Strategic Shifts: Ford is leaning on U.S. production to mitigate tariff impacts and focusing on hybrids over EVs, aligning with consumer demand and cost considerations.

Conclusion

Ford Motor Company’s stock, at $9.405, offers a compelling 6–7.5% dividend yield and undervalued metrics (P/E 6.8–7.2, P/S 0.2x), but tariff wars, EV losses, and a high $131 billion debt load signal caution. Technical indicators and a $9.15–$9 support level suggest a potential rebound, with 2029 price targets up to $19.63. Dollar-cost averaging and close monitoring of Q1 2025 earnings can help investors navigate volatility. For income and value seekers, Ford is a speculative bet with risks and rewards in equal measure.

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*Investment analysis involves scrutinizing over 50 different criteria to assess a company's ability to generate shareholder value. This comprehensive approach includes tracking revenue, profit, equity dynamics, dividend payments, cash flow, debt and financial management, stock price trends, bankruptcy risk, F-Score, and more. These metrics are consolidated into a straightforward Investment Scoreboard, which effectively helps predict future stock price movements.
**Use the price forecast to manage the risk of your investments.