The Estée Lauder Companies Stock Forecast 2025–2029: Is $67.45 a Buy or a Bust?

Is The Estée Lauder Companies a hidden gem or a fading star? With its stock price languishing near a 52-week low of $67.45 as of March 25, 2025, and a prestige beauty empire spanning Clinique to La Mer, this iconic brand is at a crossroads. Dive into our forecast to uncover whether now’s the time to buy—or a signal to steer clear.

Operations

Estée Lauder Companies Inc. shares. Company is one of the world’s leading manufacturers of high-quality skincare, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products, as well as marketing experts and sellers. The company was founded in 1946 by Estée and Joseph Lauder. Its products are sold in approximately 150 countries and territories.

The company manages well-known brands such as Estée Lauder, Clinique, Origins, M·A·C, Bobbi Brown Cosmetics, La Mer, Aveda, Jo Malone London, TOM FORD, Too Faced, Dr.Jart+, and The Ordinary. Additionally, it holds global licenses for AERIN and BALMAIN brands for perfumes and cosmetics. Each brand is uniquely positioned in the cosmetics and beauty products market.

Financial Performance and Ratios

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc., a global leader in prestige beauty, has faced a challenging period in its recent financial performance. For fiscal year 2024 (ended June 30, 2024), the company reported net sales of $15.61 billion, a 2% decline from $15.91 billion in the prior year. Organic net sales also decreased by 2%, driven largely by softness in prestige beauty in mainland China and Asia travel retail, though this was partially offset by growth in Latin America and other emerging markets.

Net earnings plummeted 61% to $390 million, or $1.08 per diluted share, compared to $1.01 billion ($2.79 per share) in fiscal 2023, reflecting pressures from goodwill impairment charges and a higher effective tax rate of 47.0% (up from 27.7%).

In the first quarter of fiscal 2025 (ended September 30, 2024), net sales fell 4% to $3.36 billion from $3.52 billion year-over-year, with organic net sales down 5%, again due to weakened consumer sentiment in China and lower replenishment orders in Asia travel retail.

The company reported a net loss of $156 million ($0.43 per share), a stark contrast to a $31 million net income in the prior-year quarter, impacted by $159 million in talcum litigation settlement charges and $97 million in restructuring costs. Adjusted diluted EPS, however, rose to $0.14, showing some resilience in underlying operations.

Key financial ratios highlight these struggles.

The trailing twelve-month (TTM) earnings per share (EPS) stands at -$1.95, resulting in a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 147, significantly higher than its five-year average of 76.2, suggesting the stock is trading at a premium despite declining earnings. The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 5.9, below its five-year average of 14.5, indicating a relative discount to historical valuations. Return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) have dropped sharply by 63% and 62% year-over-year, respectively, reflecting reduced profitability and efficiency.

The Estée Lauder Companies Stock Price Performance

As of March 25, 2025, The Estée Lauder Companies’ stock (NYSE: EL) is priced at $67.45, according to real-time data. This represents a modest 0.75% increase from the previous day’s close of $66.95. However, the stock has experienced significant volatility and decline over longer periods. Over the past month (from February 24, 2025), EL has dropped from $75.11 to $67.45, a decline of about 10%. Year-to-date in 2025, the stock is down approximately 19% from $83.43 in January.

Over the past year, it has fallen 56% from $154.15 in March 2024, underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which gained 23.8% over the same period. The stock’s 52-week range shows a high of $99.75 and a low of $66.84, with the current price near the bottom, reflecting bearish sentiment driven by weak earnings and market challenges in Asia.

Competitive Landscape

The Estée Lauder Companies operates in the highly competitive global prestige beauty market. With a portfolio of iconic brands like Estée Lauder, Clinique, La Mer, Jo Malone London, and The Ordinary, spanning skin care (51% of 2024 sales), makeup (29%), fragrance (16%), and hair care (4%). Its primary competitors include L’Oréal S.A., Coty Inc., Shiseido, and Revlon, alongside emerging niche and direct-to-consumer brands.

L’Oréal, the world’s largest cosmetics company, poses a significant threat with its broad portfolio and strong presence in both mass and luxury segments. Coty Inc., with brands like Gucci Beauty and CoverGirl, has outperformed EL recently, with its stock declining only 34.1% over the past year compared to EL’s 40.5%. Shiseido competes heavily in Asia, a critical market where Estée Lauder has struggled.

Investment Insight

Following our company’s latest performance evaluation, the Investment Scoreboard has shown significant improvement. This has substantially raised the target price for our stock. However, this comes as no surprise, as the market had already begun to recognize the company’s value. Currently, with the stock price having dropped considerably, we see a compelling opportunity for high potential investment returns. It’s worth considering holding some of this company’s shares in your portfolio, if only for the attractive dividend yield.

The Estée Lauder Companies Stock Forecast**

2025–2029 Price Targets: 

Year	MIN Target	MAX Target
2025	104.67	261.67
2026	107.52	268.82
2027	110.46	278.16
2028	113.48	283.70
2029	116.57	291.44

When to buy and Investment Tips

As the stock price hovers near its recent lows and a support level begins to take shape, technical analysis suggests that now could be a strategic time to invest in shares for the long term.

Dividend Policy and Buyback Policy

The Estée Lauder Companies has historically maintained a dividend policy to reward shareholders, but recent adjustments reflect financial pressures. On October 31, 2024, the company reduced its quarterly dividend from $0.66 to $0.35 per share, payable on December 16, 2024, to shareholders of record as of November 29, 2024.

This cut aims to align the payout ratio with current earnings capacity and provide flexibility for the incoming leadership to reinvest in growth. At the current stock price of $67.45, the annualized dividend yield is approximately 2.1%. Down from higher yields prior to the reduction.

Regarding share buybacks, Estée Lauder has not emphasized aggressive repurchasing recently, focusing instead on managing costs and restructuring amid declining sales. Historically, the company’s strong cash flow supported both dividends and occasional buybacks. But the current strategy prioritizes financial flexibility over returning capital to shareholders through repurchases.

Conclusion

The Estée Lauder Companies faces headwinds in Asia and declining earnings, yet its discounted stock price and resilient brand portfolio signal potential for long-term investors. With a 2.1% dividend yield and technical support forming near $67.45, 2025 could mark a turning point—provided new leadership reignites growth. The forecast? Cautious optimism with a watch-and-wait approach.

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*Investment analysis involves scrutinizing over 50 different criteria to assess a company's ability to generate shareholder value. This comprehensive approach includes tracking revenue, profit, equity dynamics, dividend payments, cash flow, debt and financial management, stock price trends, bankruptcy risk, F-Score, and more. These metrics are consolidated into a straightforward Investment Scoreboard, which effectively helps predict future stock price movements.
**Use the price forecast to manage the risk of your investments.